How much can you earn on arbitrage: the maths on real numbers
The most common question about arbitrage - and the most common excuse for scams. Skip any promise of "2% a day" straight away. The honest answer: income depends on capital, the number of working routes, fees and how much time you are willing to put in. Here is the formula and a few scenarios worked through - examples, not a forecast.
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What income is made of
Arbitrage income fits a simple formula: net spread per trade × trade size × number of trades. The market limits every factor: the net spread after all deductions is usually small, the trade size is capped by book depth, and the number of trades by how many working routes appear and how many you manage to execute.
| Factor | What limits it |
|---|---|
| Net spread | Fees, slippage, transfer, funding - see why the spread is not your profit |
| Trade size | Book depth: the bigger the size, the worse the average price |
| Number of trades | How many routes appear, how long you watch, execution speed |
| Capital turnover | Transfer and holding time - money in transit is not working |
Scenario 1: spot arbitrage with a transfer
| Average net spread after all deductions | 0.4% |
| Income per trade | $2.00 |
| Working trades a day (example) | 4 |
| Per day | ≈ $8 |
| Per month (22 working days) | ≈ $176, or ≈ 8.8% on capital |
The example assumes you find and execute 4 working routes every day. On quiet days there may be none, and one transfer mistake can cost more than a day's income.
Scenario 2: futures arbitrage between exchanges
| Average net result per route | 0.25% |
| Income per route | $2.50 |
| Routes a day (example) | 3 |
| Per day | ≈ $7.50 |
| Per month (22 days) | ≈ $165, or ≈ 4.1% on capital |
More capital is needed: margin on two exchanges plus a buffer against liquidation. In return, no coins are transferred.
Scenario 3: funding arbitrage and hedged positions
| Average net annual yield (example) | 15% |
| Per month | ≈ 1.25%, or ≈ $62 |
| Management time | minutes a day |
The yield moves a lot with the rates: higher in frenzied periods, lower in calm or falling ones, sometimes negative. See funding rate arbitrage and hedged staking.
What affects the result most
- Fees. The gap between 0.1% and 0.05% per trade can double a route's income.
- Time. Manual spot arbitrage needs constant attention; funding strategies much less.
- Capital on several exchanges. With money already on both sides you can trade without transfers and make more trades.
- Discipline. One mistake - a coin sent over the wrong network or a liquidated leg - can wipe out weeks of work.
- Market regime. Volatile periods bring more spreads and higher rates, calm ones fewer.
Costs people forget
- Fees for moving fiat on and off exchanges.
- Money sitting idle on exchanges waiting for a route.
- Tool subscriptions and time spent learning.
- Taxes - the rules depend on the country.
Why promises of "X% a day" do not work
A steady income of several percent a day from arbitrage is not achievable: such spreads last briefly and only for small sizes, otherwise large players with bots would take them. Promises of high guaranteed returns are a classic sign of a scam, especially if taking part means sending money to someone else.
The scanner shows each route's net result at your chosen size after fees, and for futures including funding. It helps tell in advance which routes are worth the time.
Glossary
- Net spread - the price difference after all fees, slippage and the transfer.
- Capital turnover - how many times money goes through trades over a period.
- Route - a specific coin and pair of exchanges with a price difference.
- Annual yield - income converted to a yearly figure to compare strategies.
- Leg - one of the positions of a route.
Arbitrage earnings FAQ
How much can you realistically earn on crypto arbitrage?
It depends on capital, fees, the number of working routes and time. For manual trading a sensible guide is a few percent on capital a month, but there are no guarantees, and some months end in the red.
What amount makes sense to start with?
Small amounts get eaten by fixed withdrawal fees. Spot arbitrage with transfers usually starts from a few hundred dollars; futures arbitrage needs more because of margin on two exchanges.
Can I earn 1-2% a day?
Not steadily. Individual trades sometimes have such a spread, but consistently and at meaningful size it is unrealistic. Such promises are a sign of a scam.
Which pays more: spot or futures?
Spot gives more routes on altcoins but needs transfers. Futures need no transfers but require margin and liquidation control. Many combine both.
How much time does it take?
Manual spot arbitrage takes hours a day. Funding and hedged positions take minutes of checking once they are open.
Is arbitrage income taxed?
Usually yes, but the rules depend on the country. Check the requirements of your jurisdiction.
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